david 的个人资料The Butterfly Effect in ...照片日志列表 工具 帮助
2007/4/29

early bird get nothing

我起的早啊,HOHO。
实在睡不着了上会网。
今天上完班就休息了,之后又要出差了。不知道这次能去多久。但愿能按照计划6月下旬回来。 对了,签证怎么还不到啊,NND
祝一切顺利,祝cecily can enjoy hard-won chance to live alone but not lonely.
2007/4/24

[Mutual Fund Serial]What is NAV

Introduction

  Mutual Funds 101: What a Mutual Fund Is teaches you that a mutual fund's NAV is its net asset value, or its price per share. At first blush, mutual fund NAVs seem just like stock prices. Both represent the price of one share of an investment. Both appear in newspapers and on financial Web sites. But that's where the similarities between NAVs and stock prices end. 

Calculating NAV

  A mutual fund calculates its NAV by adding up the current value of all the stocks, bonds, and other securities (including cash) in its portfolio, adjusting for expenses, and then dividing that figure by the fund's total number of shares. For example, a fund with 500,000 shares that owns $9 million in stocks and $1 million in cash has an NAV of $20. 

So Alike, Yet So Very Different

NAVs and stock prices differ in four important ways.

Difference One. Stock prices change throughout the trading day, but mutual fund NAVs are usually calculated only once each day, at the end of trading. When you purchase a mutual fund, you buy shares at the NAV as of that day's close. As a result, you don't necessarily know the exact NAV of the fund when you invest. But that's okay, because funds willingly issue fractional shares, and investors purchase fund shares in dollar amounts rather than in share amounts. The result: Mutual funds can be more affordable than stocks. For example, if you have $1,250 that you'd like to put into a fund with an initial minimum investment of $500 and an NAV of $14, you'll get exactly 89.286 shares. Everything else being equal, a $100 investment is a $100 investment, and the number of shares purchased is irrelevant. In contrast, stock purchases are often made in even share amounts--you buy 50 shares of Coca Cola KO or 100 shares of Microsoft MSFT. A high stock price can therefore be a barrier to investors who don't have much money to invest.

Difference Two. Stocks have a fixed number of shares outstanding. To change its number of shares outstanding, a company can either increase its share float by issuing new shares in a secondary offering or decrease its float by buying back shares in the market. In contrast, mutual funds generally have an unlimited number of shares. The number of shares changes on a daily basis, depending on how many shares investors buy and sell that day. An increase or decrease in the number of mutual fund shares doesn't result in an NAV change, though, because both the numerator and denominator of the equation (as you recall, assets and number of shares, respectively) change in equal proportion.

Difference Three. You can determine whether a stock is a bargain or not by comparing its price to a "fair" price, based on such information as earnings estimates or cash flows. (The stock courses cover this process known as "valuing" a stock.) With mutual funds, however, NAV is tied solely to the current value of the fund's underlying holdings. There is no "fair" price of a mutual fund the way there might be with a stock.

Difference Four. You can often use stock prices and nothing else to gauge how well a stock is performing. Mutual funds, however, distribute any income or gains they realize to shareholders as dividends, which, in turn, pulls down their NAVs. Unless you account for such distributions, you're underestimating a fund's actual performance. To accurately gauge a fund's performance, you need to examine its total return, which takes into account both the appreciation of the fund's holdings as well as any distributions that have been paid. (We'll explore this topic in our next course.) 

NAV's Uses 

  After learning a bit more about NAVs, you may be thinking, "What the heck can I use NAV for?" Well, NAVs do provide you with some idea of what your investment is worth each day. Daily access to NAVs reassures you that your investment is being watched over, valued, and reported on. That's something.

2007/4/23

一大堆

一 帮tt选只鸡
tt也想体验一下现在火爆的的市场,和充满风险和陷阱的市场。
昨天花了半天的时间,帮tt选了易基深100ETF。
首先我认为易方达是个好公司,就好像现在大学都要做研究型大学一样,易方达也要做研究型基金公司
其次易方达从建立以来的业绩一直不错,其中我主要看了比较老的几只在熊市中的表现,在大盘下挫平均达到17%的时候,易方达依然能够维持收益在百分之-1点几~~-5%左右。
第三,现在的基民 股民太多,那天听第一财经,股市开户帐号已达到1亿,OMG,不敢想像...所以基金现在动辄就是几十亿,过百亿的庞然大物,这么多钱基金经理手里,他肯定要最大程度考虑风险,所以还是中国石油 工商银行这种大盘蓝筹是重仓,而基金大部分都跑不赢大盘,所以还不如选一个指数基金。
易基深100ETF今年的表现也很不错,年涨幅在股票型里排在第四位,190%的年收益率。标准差虽然达到了32.27%(说明增长波动较大)但是以俺们这些无房贷无车贷无父母赡养无子女抚养的人来说,承受风险的能力是最强的。收益风险系数(收益与风险相比,越大越好)比现在很火的广发小盘,上投优势都要好。贝塔系数比1还小,就是说比大盘的波动还小。
总之我是选了易基深100ETF了。俺自己则打算再入一只鹏华中国50,这是只绝对稳定的,战绩优良的老鸡。
 
二 长期与短期
 
前几天第一次发基金文章时,我说自己是做短线,amanda提醒市场进入点,之后第3天大盘调整,我就损失了5%。
但是我说的短期是在我坚信中国股市还要牛一阵子的基础上,所以大盘调整和我短期投资不成冲突,与1年后大盘指数相比,现在肯定相对还在低位,不管专家说什么“黄金十年”,我认为至少挺到08年是不成问题的,之前中国股市周期是2年熊市2年牛市,不知道这次怎么样。
那正好顺便说说短期与长期。 如果中国股市真的有黄金10年之说,那你持有了10年,也未必就是长期投资。因为一旦开始下跌,由牛变熊,你便赎回,不管你之前持有了多少年,这都是短期投资。而真正的经历熊市 牛市甚至崩盘,坚持到最后,相信经济的发展,这才是长期持有,长期投资。
俺还在选,准备做定投的。初步想,债券类占1/3 配置型占1/3 股票型1/3。 等将来再买套房再选几份保险,这才基本达到分散合理。
 
三 俺也是白领了
 
为了出差买了套行头,好不适应啊。
IMG_3051IMG_3032
 
2007/4/22

[Mutual Fund Serial]What a Mutual Fund Is

From morningstart website http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/Classroom.html

What a Mutual Fund Is

Introduction

Buying a mutual fund is a lot like going to a brand-new Chinese restaurant with friends. Maybe you crave moo shu pork, but the General Tso's chicken sounds good, too. And you have never been to this restaurant before, so picking just one dish is risky. What if the vegetables are too hard or the rice too mushy? The solution: Gather a group of friends willing to share their orders, and you can sample a little of everything. A mutual fund brings together people, too--people who want to invest. The fund pools together the group's money and invests it for them in a collection of securities, such as stocks or bonds or a combination of the two.

The Mechanics

When you buy a mutual fund, you're actually buying shares of the fund. The price of a share at any time is called the fund's net asset value, or NAV. Invest $1,000 in a fund with an NAV of $118.74, and you will get 8.42 shares. (Unlike stocks, you can own fractions of a fund share.) The fund takes your money and combines it with any other new investments and the money that's already invested with the fund. Altogether, those investments are the fund's assets. The fund invests its assets by buying stocks, bonds, or a combination of such securities. These stocks or bonds are often referred to as holdings, and all of a fund's holdings taken together are its portfolio. (A fund's type depends on the types of securities it holds. For example, a stock fund invests in stocks, while a small-company fund focuses on the stocks of small companies.)

What you get as an investor or shareholder is a portion of that portfolio. Regardless of how much or how little you invest, your shares are the portfolio in miniature. For example, Vanguard 500 Index's VFINX four largest holdings are Microsoft MSFT (3.25% of its portfolio as of June 2002), General Electric GE (3.16%), ExxonMobil XOM (3.04%), and Wal-Mart Stores WMT (2.68%). Your $1,000 investment in the fund means you own $32.50 worth of Microsoft, $31.60 of General Electric, and so on. In an indirect way, you own the 500 stocks in the fund's portfolio.

The Benefits

  Mutual funds offer a handful of benefits to investors.

1. They don't demand large up-front investments. If you have just $1,000 to invest, it will be difficult for you to assemble a varied group of stocks. For example, if you had $1,000 to invest and decided to buy one share of stock from the largest U.S. company, then one from the next largest, and so on, you'd run out of money sometime before purchasing the tenth stock. If you bought a mutual fund, though, you would get much more. You can buy some funds for as little as $50 per month if you agree to dollar-cost average, or invest a certain dollar amount each month or quarter. (We'll cover different investment methods in an upcoming session.) You can make an initial investment in many funds with just $1,000 in hand; $2,500 will get you into most funds. If you invest through an Individual Retirement Account, you can often get your foot in the door with even less than $1,000.

2. They're easy to buy and sell. You can buy mutual funds three ways: through financial advisors, directly from fund families, or via no-transaction fee networks, which are also called fund supermarkets. (We'll discuss these options in later courses.) But no matter how you buy funds, you can buy and sell shares quite easily--often with just a phone call or mouse click. The exception: closed funds. Closed funds no longer accept new money, except, in some cases, from current shareholders. (In later courses, we'll discuss why some funds close.) Investors who own closed funds can sell at any time, though. And when you sell shares of a fund, you get cash in return.

3. They're regulated. Mutual funds can't take your money and head for some remote island somewhere. This security exists through regulation set by the Investment Company Act of 1940. After the stock-market madness of the two decades prior to 1940, which revealed big investors' tendencies to take advantage of small investors (to put it nicely), the government stepped in. The 1940 Act is important to investors because it makes your mutual fund a regulated investment company (regulated by the Securities & Exchange Commission), and it makes you an owner of that company. Fidelity, for example, is a company that runs dozens of mutual funds. If you invest in one of their mutual funds--say, Fidelity Magellan FMAGX--you own a piece of the mutual fund, not a piece of Fidelity itself. Every mutual fund has a board of directors that represents the fund's shareholders. Apart from a small handful, mutual funds are not insured or guaranteed. You can lose money in a mutual fund, because a fund's value is nothing more than the value of its portfolio holdings. If the holdings lose value, so will the fund. The odds of you losing all of your money are very slim, though--all of the stocks in the portfolio would have to go belly up for that to happen. And that is just not likely.

4. They're professionally managed. If you plan to buy individual stocks and bonds, you need to know how to read a cash-flow statement or calculate duration. Such knowledge is not required to invest in a mutual fund. While mutual fund investors should understand how the stock and bond markets work, you pay your fund managers to select securities for you. Mutual funds are not fairy-tale investments. As you will see in later sessions, some funds are expensive, others are poor performing, and still others are tax nightmares. But overall, mutual funds are good investments for those who don't have the money, time, or interest necessary to compile a collection of securities on their own. 

2007/4/19

为列维·利布雷斯库默哀

枪响之时,没有人“让领导先走”列维·利布雷斯库教授做了美国的黄继光。
 
在弗吉尼亚理工大学枪击事件中,最感人的一幕是:年届七旬的力学系客座教授、世界知名的以色列籍学者列维·利布雷斯库在关键时刻挺身堵住了枪眼,为全班学生成功逃脱争取了宝贵时间。

  死死把住教室门

  利布雷斯库的学生埃里克·卡尔霍恩在接受媒体采访时表示:“教授和同学们都在教室里上课,突然听到隔壁教室传出一阵巨响,像是砸锤子的声音。同学们很快回味过来是枪声,有人赶紧钻到桌子底下隐蔽起来,还有的则打开窗户直接往楼下跳。当我越过窗户,回头看教授的一刹那间,发现他留在后面把住教室门,结果正好撞到了枪口上。他这一堵,为我们全班的学生成功逃脱换回了宝贵的时间。我们班没有一人伤亡!” 

  感动万分的学生们纷纷给师母发电子邮件,详细描述了感人的一幕。

  利布雷斯库的儿媳妇阿耶拉告诉记者说,事发当天,她婆婆亲自开车送公公上班,但没想到一个小时后就阴阳两隔。

  以总理“讨”来的学者

  利布雷斯库和他的妻子都是纳粹大屠杀集中营的生还者,令人感慨的是,他遭枪杀的当天也是纳粹大屠杀纪念日。

  利布雷斯库出生在罗马尼亚,1978年迁居以色列。据以色列《消息报》17日透露,当年移民以色列并不容易,罗马尼亚政府不想失去如此出色的科学家,所以直到以色列前总理贝京亲自向罗马尼亚前总统齐奥塞斯库求情之后,利布雷斯库才得以移民以色列。

  上个世纪80年代,利布雷斯库移民美国,此后就在弗吉尼亚理工大学任教至今。(宗禾) (来源:海峡都市报)

2007/4/18

市场有风险,投资要谨慎-初当基民的感受

林奇的五阶段模型:

第一阶段:没有人愿意听他说股市,宁愿去看牙医,谈论保健问题。(这是买入点)
第二阶段: 当他告诉别人他是股神后,听者愿意和他多聊一会,主要谈风险。(这是股市涨
了15%)
第三阶段:人们开始疏远牙医,问他关于股市的建议的时候,(这时候涨了50%)
第四阶段:每个人都在谈论股市,而无视他的建议时(这时候涨了100%)
第五阶段:当牙医也开始给他推荐股票的时候,这时候就是卖出点了

现在是哪个阶段呢?我想任何人都能从身边的环境推断出来。
为何我在此时选择了开始做一个基民呢?其实完全不是股市折腾的。要感谢也要感谢JE论坛,以T1 GIGIX为代表的这种极其富有投资理财思想的人。JE曾经早在人们还不这么疯狂的时候就已经掀起了一股理财热潮,只是现在的股市将这潮流推向了高点。
读了不少文章,接受了长期投资终生理财的观念以后,我始终还没有找到合适的投资机会。尤其现在我还有每月1房贷负债。终于有人推荐了LaoK的博客(http://laok2.blog.sohu.com/)尤其连载的我的投资观和实践,基本让人对基金有了一个大概的认识,而通过友情链接,就会挖掘到大量的信息。
虽说各种数据表明,长期持有一支股票,随着时间的增长,亏损几率越来越小,但是,这是整个的大盘走势,可是如果个人不投入大量精力来打理手中的股票,分散投资,在熊市和股市崩盘之时,你手里的股票是否还能活着也是未知,而即使存活,牛市之时,你手里那只未必也跟着大家一路高歌猛进。
可是我相信一个好的基金证券公司+好的团队,在长期持有的情况下,会最大限度的保证投资的回报率。基金公司往往投资股票种类要比普通散户多,这也是帮助个人分散投资,而散户很难做到。所以,选择一家有信誉的基金公司,根据自己的风险承受能力和回报率期待以及准备投资的时间,买基金是类似我这种上班族懒人最好的选择。

基金的文章也看了很久了,但是总不会瞄准-射击的,市场是无法预测的,总要射击-瞄准-射击来跑几圈才能感受到市场的残酷,而且也会真正认识到自己对风险的承受能力。
新股民都建议买5元左右的股票,1手2手,体验一下,熟练了,有经验了再大量的操作。我新基民也一样,在多方考察之后选定了上投摩根和广发两家公司,最终在如今牛市冲天的时候,打算做2支短线的激进的股票型基金。

说道基金的选择,净值与新基金我也不感冒,而且我确实不明白为啥有人有精致恐高症,这是最简单的数学题没算懂,算了,明天有空写写为啥不需要恐高净值。我选择了在晨星评级较高的广发小盘,另外为了体验一下市场,最小份额的购买了新基金上投先锋。于是,刚买到手,就体验到了什么叫做风险。

上投先锋的基金经理-唐某,搞老鼠仓,已经被停止投资权限。这不等于市长贪污一样么,老百姓的钱都进了他口袋了。还好,我相信上投是个好公司,看看以后先锋的走势啦。不过俺要更加慎重的选一下准备做定投的基金了。那个可是准备投个5年8年的...要是能选出来华夏大盘这种疯基金,比炒股票赚的少不了。

2007/4/16

反正不是我做的

最近tt迷上了手工制品,嗯,她纯手工的制品,在消灭了我一件T-SHIRT和一个鞋盒之后终于决定买了套专业地做手工制品的行头。今天给俺的公交卡做了件衣服。 那是相当的有才了。


pocket
pocket

2007/4/8

Linkin Park

  
 
继上一张专辑《Meteroa》之后,已有4年未有发表过新作的超级摇滚团体LinkinPark即将回归乐坛。其令全球乐迷苦苦等待、望眼欲穿的全新录音室大碟《Minutes To Midnight》,终于确定将于5月15日隆重上市。专辑中的首支全新单曲《What I\'ve Done》亦定于4月3日在全球同步播出。  《Minutes To Midnight》作为专辑名称,其背后的创作格外引人深思,想要表达出的其实就是“末日之钟”(Doomsday Clock)的概念。“末日之钟”是原子时代最著名的标志之一,它指针的每一次拨动,都象征着人类向战乱或和平又靠近了一步。“末日之钟”由美国《原子科学家公报》杂志设立和管理,它的午夜零点象征世界灾难或世界末日;时钟指针所指时间距离午夜零点的远近,则象征世界面临毁灭性灾难的风险大小。而“Midnight”午夜,所代表的就是灭亡时刻。而目前在经过前前后后18次调整之后,在核武、天气异常、及环境污染的影响之下,世界距离毁灭的午夜时分也只剩五分钟的时间。
          作为万众瞩目的新专辑第一主打单曲,《What I\'ve Done》音乐录像带中以蒙太奇的手法,将近半世纪在地球上发生过足以影响所有人类、动物、植物生存权的大件事记录下来,包括:政治的纷乱、种族冲突造成无谓的战争杀戮、环保意识不彰造成自然生态崩解、百年冰川消融、北极熊等珍贵的生物濒临绝种、人类面对世纪末的仓皇不安,以吸毒等极端的手段暂实逃离现实等等。
          团员Mike表示,这首作品风格将与以往的完全不同,主唱Chester也曾在之前接受的采访中表示:“这首歌代表着我们乐队的改变,可以说是向从前的我们告别。”据悉,该支MV由乐队成员Mr.Hahn执导拍摄,拍摄地点在加州的沙漠。

2007/4/5

推荐一枚BLOG

看了这个 http://www.bullog.cn/blogs/jishisan/archives/37962.aspx 看来俺家PP是不可能知道自己长啥样了。想想她竟然不知道自己是个
‘美女’也怪可惜的啊。